Season Wins Analysis

Now that I live in Vegas and have better access to betting markets, I do a bunch of football analysis with a focus on season win totals and NFL props. Here's my Stanford season win totals analysis.

Predicted Spreads

Stanford -25.5 vs San Jose State

Stanford -20 vs Duke

Stanford +12 vs USC

Stanford -4 vs Washington

Stanford -14.5 vs Arizona

Stanford +6 @ Notre Dame

Stanford -3.5 @ Cal

Stanford -13.5 vs WSU

Stanford -17.5 @ Colorado

Stanford -16.5 vs Oregon State

Stanford +14 @ Oregon

Stanford -5.5 @ UCLA

Total Wins Probability Distribution (assuming each game is independent)

0-5 wins: 4.8%

6 wins: 12.1%

7 wins: 24.0%

8 wins: 29.1%

9 wins: 20.6%

10 wins: 7.8%

11 wins: 1.4%

12 wins: 0.1%

My Bets (Conference Championship games do not count)

Stanford Over 7 wins (-117) Current Price: -250/+210

Stanford Over 7.5 wins (-105) Current Price: -135/-105

Vegas Lines

With this being my last weekend in Vegas for the next few months, I thought it would be fitting to take a look at the upcoming season from the perspective of Vegas.

Prospective Spreads
Stanford -25.5 vs San Jose State (Total = 52)
Stanford + 11.5 vs USC
Stanford -4 @ Washington
Stanford +5.5 @ Notre Dame
Stanford -4 @ Cal
Stanford +13.5 @ Oregon

Stanford Win Totals
Over 6.5 (-390/+270)
Over 7 (-250/+210)
Over 7.5 (-135/+105)
Over 8 (-110/-110)

Win Pac-12 North
Oregon -280, Stanford +775, Cal +825, Washington +850, Oregon State +2000, WSU +2300

Win Pac-12
USC -160, Oregon +250, Stanford +2500, Cal +2700, Washington +2800, Utah +4000, UCLA +4500, Arizona +5500, ASU +6000, Oregon State +7000, WSU +7500, Colorado +20000

Who will have more Rushing Yards
Kenjon Barner +180, Stepfan Taylor +190, John White IV +230, Isi Sofele +370, Cameron Marshall +425

Who will have more Rushing TDs
Stepfan Taylor +180, Kenjon Barner +190, John White IV +235, Cameron Marshall +355, Isi Sofele +455