Friday, September 2, 2011

Vegas Lines

Given that I’m moving to Vegas very soon, I thought that it would be fitting to take a look at some of the Stanford lines/futures/props in anticipation of the season opener and revisit them at the end of the season.

Current and Prospective Lines
Stanford -28.5 vs SJSU, o/u 53.5
Stanford -1 @ USC
Stanford +1 vs Oregon
Stanford -11.5 vs Cal
Stanford -5 vs Notre Dame

I expect us to be more than a 1 pt favorite when the game at USC rolls around but that might just be my cardinal tinted glasses talking.

Stanford Props/Futures
Stanford Total Wins 8.5: Over -195, Under +160
Stanford Total Wins 9: Over +100, Under -130
Stanford Total Points For Per Game 36.5: Over -130, Under -110
Stanford to win Pac-12 North +175
Stanford to win Pac-12 +300
Stanford Top 5 in USA Today Final Poll +500
Stanford to reach BCS Championship +1000
Stanford to win BCS National Championship +3000
Team higher in USA Today Final Poll:
Stanford +100 vs Virginia Tech -140
Stanford +145 vs Florida State -190

The over 8.5 wins opened at -155. Even though I don’t like to wager on Stanford for fear of bias, that was a price I couldn’t refuse.

Luck Props/Futures (Regular Season + Post Season)
Luck to win Heisman +250
Luck Total Passing Yards 3049.5: Over -110, Under -130
Luck Total Passing Touchdowns 24.5: Over -150, Under +110

3049.5 yards over 13 or 14 games seems low. Of course there is the injury factor but it’s still somewhat worrying that they are so low on Luck. Absolutely no value in Heisman bet at +250.

Pac-12 Player Props (Regular Season Only)
Who will have the most passing yards per game:
Luck -140, Barkley +175, Foles +300
Who will have the most passing TDs:
Luck -150, Barkley +150, Foles +325
Who will have the most rushing yards per game:
James +100, Taylor +250, Polk +350, Stewart +575, Franklin +800, Baxter +875
Who will have the most rushing TDs:
James +100, Taylor +250, Polk +375, Stewart +400, Franklin +1200, Baxter +1500
Who will have the most receiving yards per game:
Kearse +250, Owusu +275, Criner +350, Woods +355, Wilson +550, Allen +700
Who will have the most receiving TDs:
Kearse +250, Criner +275, Owusu +350, Woods +355, Wilson +500, Allen +625

Foles at +300 to have more passing yards per game than Luck and Barkley seems like great value given that Arizona is likely to be throwing the ball late in games. Even if he gets injured because of his inexperienced O-line and is out for a couple of games, if the injury comes at the end of the game, his average will still be high. There might even be value in shorting Luck and loading up on Barkley and Foles. Don’t know enough about the other teams/players to make an informed decision for the other bets except NOT to bet on Taylor. Probably would shy away from Owusu too.

Less than 24 hours to kickoff!

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